Daniel Kempken*

Versión en español aquí.

In the middle of the last decade, Ecuador was considered an island of peace in a continent characterized by high levels of violence. But since around 2019, violence and insecurity have increased exponentially in the country. This extraordinary and worrying increase in crime and threats to citizen security is due to a number of mutually reinforcing factors: drug trafficking on a larger scale, reduced anti-drug cooperation with the United States and Colombia, overburdened and weakened police forces and prison administrations, the end of a long-standing economic and social boom, high levels of corruption, the gradual «normalization» of criminal behavior and, last but not least, low confidence in the judicial system.

What has happened? Retrospect

Ecuador was no stranger to violence and insecurity in the past. In the 1990s, the country’s homicide rate went from 10.4 per 100,000 inhabitants to 16.6, a fairly high figure that roughly corresponds to the current average for Latin American countries and is two and a half times higher than the world average. As a result, the historic center of Quito, for example, the nightlife district of Mariscal, and the port city of Guayaquil were already quite dangerous places, at least at night. 

From 2000 to 2010, the homicide rate stayed about the same; then it fell to 5.78 in 2017, the lowest level since 1980. Then the fatal crime rate skyrocketed to 25.3, which means it almost quintupled by 2022; currently there is no end in sight of this deadly spiral. Violence, insecurity, especially robbery and extortion have increased dramatically, especially in coastal cities. In most neighborhoods, few people go out on the streets at night; restaurants and bars are visited by car.

A significant part of Ecuador’s violent crime is linked to drug trafficking, which has increased considerably in a short time. In 2019, the research portal InsightCrime described Ecuador as a cocaine highway to the United States and Europe. While 63 tons of cocaine were seized by authorities in 2015, this figure increased to 210 tons in 2021 and 180 tons in 2022. 

Because of drug trafficking’s illicity nature, conflicting business interests that arise are addressed exclusively through violence. Drug cartels rely on hitmen and extortionists to secure their business. Due to the rise in narcotrafficking, a spiral of violence has been set in motion and increasingly fueled. Lawlessness and criminality have also developed in non-drug sectors. A certain normalization of criminal acts has been established and scares law-abiding citizens in the country.

For example, the crime of extortion, which was practically unknown a few years ago and is euphemistically called «vacuna” (vaccination) in Ecuador, is widespread. Small businesses are also targeted by the «vacunadores.” Those who do not «vaccinate» in exchange for the fee demanded by the extortionists endanger their business and, in extreme cases, their lives and those of their families.

Violence in Ecuador’s prisons has taken on a particularly drastic form. Organized crime groups do not only run their business from the prisons. Clashes between hostile groups within prisons regularly lead to violent incidents with a large number of deaths. The State has lost control in many prisons. A bizarre outgrowth of this situation is the music video (narcocorrido) of imprisoned drug lord «Fito» —parts of the song glorifying the criminal were filmed in the prison itself.

Political violence is also on the rise. In the 2023 election campaign, violence was even higher than in Honduras in its 2021 election year, a country known for its high rates of violence. The sad highlight was the assassination of the presidential candidate and investigative journalist Fernando Villavicencio in August 2023, in broad daylight as he left a campaign rally. Since the beginning of 2023 there have been more than 100 politically motivated murders.

How did the situation arrive at these extremes? 

The reasons for this dramatic change in the last 5 years are multifaceted and intertwined. As it is very difficult to establish a really clear causality, explanations and interpretations differ. See some relevant causes that have contributed significantly: 

1. State security forces are not prepared to face this outbreak of insecurity; in some cases, they themselves are infiltrated by organized crime. There are several testimonies and investigations about connections, cooperation, or «Pax Mafiosa» between the last three governments of the country and drug cartels. These allegations have not been proven, but nor have they been refuted.
2. According to the German magazine Der Spiegel (41/2023), Ecuador is not a failed State, but a State captured by the mafia. A good example of this is a tragic threat to which more and more lower court judges are subjected, especially when they have to resolve habeas corpus cases filed by members of criminal groups: in many of these cases they must decide between «plata o plomo» (take the money or die). The fact that party financing is not controlled is also part of the issue of endangered State institutions by the organized crime. 
3. Reasons for the rampant drug trade include Ecuador’s geographical location between the major cocaine producers Colombia and Peru, as well as the important overseas ports on the Ecuadorian coast. The dollarization that took place in 1999 may also have made the country more attractive to drug cartels and money laundering. In 2009, the Ecuadorian government ordered the withdrawal of the U.S. military from the port city of Manta. This military base had been used, among other things, to combat drug trafficking. The withdrawal of U.S. forces facilitated the export of drugs through Ecuadorian ports and strengthened the drug cartels that already existed at the time. Cooperation with Colombia in the fight against drugs was also reduced.
4. According to Latinobarómetro, in 2017 Ecuador still had the second-best police force in Latin America after Uruguay; but in the following years the police budget was reduced, and proven structures were changed. In particular, the successful «Community Police» model was weakened. In addition, the Ministry of Justice, responsible for prisons, was abolished, thus undermining the control of prisons. In this context, it is somewhat surprising that corruption has not increased in the last 10 years, according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI); it has even decreased slightly since 2018 (2012: 32 points; 2017: 32 points; 2022: 36 points). However, corruption in Ecuador is traditionally quite high (currently ranked 101 out of 180 countries in the CPI) and favors the proliferation of criminal activities. 
5. The country’s socio-economic development has also played a role. According to World Bank data, Ecuador was able to significantly reduce poverty by 2017 (from 37% in 2007 to 22% in 2017), as well as inequality (Gini index 1999: 58.6; 2017: 44.7). Major socio-economic progress was bought at the price of very high levels of State debt, particularly in relation to China. In 2017, shortly before the outbreak of the wave of violence, the long-lasting social improvements came to an end; poverty and inequality increased again. The economy only began to rebound slightly from 2020; however, external debt continued to increase and may affect the country’s future development. 

The role of the judiciary

In the 2022 Corruption Barometer study, Transparency International Ecuador found that judges are considered corrupt by 58% of the population, after political parties (65%) and members of parliament (63%). This is significantly higher than the Latin American average (42%) and also significantly higher than the distrust in the churches (34%) or the military (30%). Doubts about the judiciary can be attributed, among other things, to the high level of impunity in the country, which in turn favors crime, violence, and insecurity. 

Among the organs of the justice system, the Constitutional Court enjoys the best reputation. The Constitutional Court is considered to be respectable, but it is not very close to criminal proceedings due to its competencies. 

The Attorney General, who is under massive threats against her person, has taken several emblematic cases to court. Some have criticized the fact that she prosecutes with varying degrees of commitment depending on the political orientation of the accused. In this context, an impeachment was opened against her in December 2023. In addition, the technical weakness of the Attorney General’s Office has been criticized.

In the same month of December 2023, the Attorney General initiated criminal proceedings for trading of influence, drug trafficking, organized crime and contract killing against 30 defendants, among them the president of the Council of the Judiciary and other high-ranking judges.

The Council of the Judiciary is responsible, in particular, for appointments and disciplinary proceedings, but also for open justice. It is often criticized. Currently, civil society organizations are calling for the selection process of 7 judges of the National Court led by the Council of the Judiciary to be annulled for serious irregularities.

As for the National Court of Justice, opinions differ. Despite its special jurisdiction against corruption and organized crime established in 2021, the court has apparently not played a very important role to date. At the beginning of 2024, 7 of the 21 judges of the National Court will be reappointed.

Quo vadis Ecuador, or the hope remains

The Ecuadorian State and Ecuadorian society face a complex challenge. The more and longer violence and insecurity spread, the greater this challenge will be. On the positive side, more and more political actors and institutions are becoming aware of the dramatic nature of this situation, which was unimaginable not long ago.

Because of the complexity of the problem, government, parliament, the judiciary, and civil society organizations are equally called upon by this extraordinary challenge. The problem must be tackled on many fronts with different approaches, both by work-sharing or integration wherever possible. 

Without a strong judicial system, it is not possible to effectively fight crime, violence, insecurity and corruption. Given the impeachment process against the Attorney General and the criminal proceedings she has initiated against high-ranking judges and the President of the Judiciary Council, there is a risk that the Ecuadorian judicial system will be instrumentalized for disputes between the different political currents in the country.

A key issue is the fight against money laundering, which is inseparably linked to asset recovery. Since 2021, Ecuador has relevant laws and a corresponding Anti-Money Laundering Commission in the Ministry of Economy and Finance. The Attorney General’s Office, with a special unit, is in charge of investigative activities. These mechanisms must be strengthened to eliminate the business base of drug trafficking and organized crime. Without money laundering, truly lucrative criminal operations are hardly possible.

To strengthen the effectiveness of the judicial system, it is necessary to examine how to speed up investigative and judicial procedures. An effective judicial system also needs much more public confidence than it currently possesses. A starting point in this regard is the so-called open justice, which can create transparency in judicial proceedings. The lack of trust in the judicial system could also be countered by educational programs on the topic of «How the judiciary works» offered by or under the auspices of an institution with a clean reputation such as the Constitutional Court. In this context, it would make sense to present and discuss important court decisions and their application in public. 

It should also be possible to strengthen the existing «islands of integrity» in the judicial system and thus work towards a critical mass of integrity. The key aspect of protecting upstanding judicial officers, especially public prosecutors and judges, who are often threatened because of their honesty, must also be taken into account.

International cooperation can play an important role in these areas. In this context the question arises as to how national and international networks of honorable lawyers and alliances of State and non-State actors can form a counterweight against corrupt networks and organized crime.

Once a state has been captured, it needs a lot of strength to free itself again, socially and politically as well as in the judicial system.

The initial question remains: Quo vadis Ecuador? It gives hope that Ecuadorians know that not so long ago a life without rampant violence and with security was possible.

* Daniel Kempken is an independent consultant in rule of law and anti-corruption issues. From 2017 to 2019, he was head of the Governance, Democracy and Rule of Law Unit at the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. He held various functions in German government cooperation and diplomacy.

Photo: Daniel Kempken